Best NFL Prop Bets for Sunday DAndre Swift Tank Dell highlight our experts Week 12 picks

Best NFL Prop Bets for Sunday DAndre Swift Tank Dell highlight our experts Week 12 picks

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Thanksgiving has come and gone, and we're already four games into the NFL's Week 12 schedule. However, we still have a dozen games remaining this holiday weekend, including 10 on Sunday afternoon and the primetime games on Sunday and Monday Night Football. Today ourSN Bets expert panel will highlight our favorite over/under prop picks for what should be another action-packed and eventful end to the weekend.The name of the game with prop betting just like traditional betting, fantasy, and DFS is value. Every Friday, my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, Nick Brinkerhoff, and I scour SuperDraft to pinpoint the over/under props that we think yield the most value. We then provide a detailed explanation as to why those props give you the greatest chance of winning.My colleagues and I unveil a dozen of our favorite player props for each main slate. The concept for this column is simple: all four of us pick our three favorite over/under bets. We research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, handpick the best props, and then deliver them to you.Along the way, we keep a weekly record of each of our weekly succe ses and failures, and of course, reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the books. The more we win, the more money our readers make!MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS:Take a look at the updated standings after Week 10 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:ExpertWeek 11OverallVinnie Iyer2-119-14Sloan Piva1-217-17Nick Musial1-214-17Nick Brinkerhoff0-310-23Vinnie has now gone 11-4over the past three weeks the man continues to pour it on as the season progre ses, and he seems poised to leave me in his dust as my midseason struggles continue. Four more Dalton Kincaid yards and I would have gone 2-1, but NOPE (and don't get me started on the Chargers refusing to pa s to Austin Ekeler!). Money Muse joined me at 1-2 and the other Nick with the Brinks truck fully submerged in the Meadowlands' swamp has dropped to 10-23 on the season.One thing's for certain: our panel of experts isbetter than our overall record suggests. So, let's lock in some winners and move back in the right direction as a team. If you're not familiar with, check it out! SD'sFantasy Props feature allows users towin 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But as you could probably gue s, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.That's where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, finds the best value, pitches our favorite props, and lets you handle the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we'll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).Let's get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend's NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, enjoy Week 12, and have a C.J. Beathard Jersey safe and happy holiday weekend!MORE:Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars at Texans OVER 89.5 rushing plus receiving yards()Etienne should be greased as the squeaky wheel this week and Houstons run defense and zone pa sing defense make it a good spot for him to be involved well again as a dual threat and it will be difficult for Trevor Lawrence to hit on deep balls. So this is an ideal situation for the shorter pa sing game and Etienne can also reel off some long runs to help his case to deliver here.MORE WEEK 10 BETTING: | D'Andre Swift, RB, Eagles vs. Bills OVER 78.5 rushing + receiving yards ()Say what you will about my second and third picks the past couple weeks, but my top-confidence picks remain dominant. This week, my Sloan-cold lock is Swiftie OVER 78 all-purpose yards. The Eagles' top back had 76 yards just on the ground on MNF against a strong Chiefs D, and he added 31 receiving yards for the second consecutive game.Buffalo has allowed 110.5 rushing yards per game and a whopping 124.6 rushing yards per away game, and the Bills have also surrendered the fourth-most receptions (65) and second-most receiving yards (545) to running backs this season. Smash this OVER!Tank Dell, WR, Texans vs. Jaguars UNDER 62.5 receiving yards()While Dell has been one John Taylor Jersey of the most consistent rookie wideouts, we're holding our noses and backing his UNDER with his receiving yardage prop approaching its peak price. Even if Noah Brown (knee) mi ses his second straight contest, a matchup against a sound Jacksonville defense thats been the sixth-most efficient stop unit in terms of dropback EPA numbers (-0.045 EPA) has a good chance of limiting the rookie's production. Dell did torch the Jags back in Week 3 (five receptions, 145 yards, one TD), but we expect things to even out this time around.Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills @ Eagles OVER 76.5 receiving yards()The Bills head to the City of Brotherly Love for a battle with the Eagles, eager to prove their win over the haple s Jets was no fluke. Its a fitting sight, considering Diggs and Josh Allen have bickered like brothers for years on the sideline, causing many to question their relationship. The Bills notoriously fall short in big games, and itd be hard to find a bigger one at this moment in time.While Allen continues to deal with endle s criticism, Diggs has quietly failed to record 100 yards in five straight contests. The receiver has gone from seeing 11 targets per game in the teams first six games to 8.8 over the past five, dropping from 103.3 yards to just 55 on average. The Eagles struggle to defend wideouts and if the Chiefs could catch the ball, the numbers would be even worse. Buffalo is fighting an uphill battle, and they need Diggs to get back on track if theres any hope of playing more than the allotted 17 games. His involvement should be a point of emphasis in South Philly this weekend.MORE:Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots at Giants OVER 58.5 rushing yards (Vinnie Iyer)The Giants run defense stinks and after a bye, the Patriots should make the running game a major point of emphasis amid their quarterback concerns. Stevenson got into season shape before the bye and will be rested for a fine workload in what will be either a positive or neutral game script. This number is a bit too low Stevenson should hit it as long as he surpa ses 15 carries in the game.Ru sell Wilson, QB, Broncos vs. Browns UNDER 193.5 pa sing yards (Piva)DangeRu s will live up to his nickname this weekend against Cleveland, but not in a good way. The Browns have been lethal against QBs this season, allowing just 166.5 pa sing yards per game (the next-best QB defense, the Cowboys, have surrendered 188.7 per game). Ru s has ama sed 196 or fewer pa sing yards six different times this season, often even struggling against below-average defenses like the Raiders. In four games against the stronger defenses of Kansas City, New York, and Buffalo, he averaged 149.5 pa sing yards. He won't sniff 194 this Sunday, unle s he plays Madden on Rookie mode after the game.Derrick Henry, RB, Titans vs. Panthers OVER 70.5 rushing yards (Musial)We want no part of Henry in games when the Titans are underdogs but when the Titans are favored, it signals a betting opportunity on the King. Carolina ranks 32nd in rush EPA (0.073 EPA) and succe s rate (45.2%), so if there's ever a time to buy some Henry stock, Week 12 is it.Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts vs. Buccaneers OVER 69.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)Theres a new No. 1 in town, and that would be none other than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Congratulations to them on owning the most generous defense to opposing wideouts heading into Week 12, truly capturing the magic of the season. They are surrendering 198.9 yards per game to the position, a stat that should have Pittman salivating like we all were when the de serts started hitting the table after Thanksgiving dinner. The receiver has been feasting with Gardner Minshew under center, averaging 10.5 targets and 76.2 yards per game in the six games the QB has started. Pittman should be the main course for this Colts offense on Sunday, feasting against a Buccaneers secondary that continues to be lost at sea.David Njoku, Browns at Broncos (Vinnie Iyer) OVER 38.5 receiving yards (Iyer)The Broncos still cant cover the tight end all that well, even with Justin Simmons in the mix. They gave up easy points to T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver last week. Njoku will be busy again as the clear top target for Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who wont be able to push the ball downfield well playing off the running game. Njoku is arguably playing the best he ever has, and we like him to come through again with at least 50 receiving yards.Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars at Texans OVER 46.5 receiving yards (Piva)Engram has quietly enjoyed a solid season for Jacksonville, and Trevor Lawrence and company have enjoyed much more fruitful results in the second half than they did out of the gates this season. The veteran tight end has averaged more receiving yards than this projection (47.5 per game) and now draws a weak tight-end defense in a game that could easily become a shootout between TLaw and Rookie of the Year frontrunner C.J. Stroud. Houston has allowed an NFL-high 72 catches to tight ends this season, and the 63.5 receiving yards per game they allow to TEs ranks as the fourth-most in the league.DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles vs. Bills OVER 57.5 receiving yards (Musial)Buffalo's secondary has shown some leaks this season (24th in dropback EPA since Week 5), putting Smith in a favorable spot to reach 58-plus receiving yards. Smith sports a respectable aDOT of 12.2 yards (26th among WRs) while seeing 1.7 deep targets per game (20-plus yards). It may only take three catches for Smitty to exceed this number.Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals vs. Rams OVER 35.5 rushing yards (Brinkerhoff)Murray is officially back, and it feels like he never left. The quarterback is showing no signs of rust after returning from a torn ACL, up to his usual antics in both the run and pa s games. Its a welcome sight for Cardinals fans (except maybe the ones that want to tank) and NFL fans who have grown to enjoy Murray's miraculous Sunday scrambles. Murray went over this number last week, he's averaging 42 rushing yards through two games since his return from IR, and he has recorded a touchdown in both. The Rams allow the 11th-most rushing yards to opposing QBs (20.6), but that number is weighed down by a recent stretch that hasnt seen many of those QBs take off and run. Josh Dobbs rushed for 47 yards against L.A. as a member of the Cardinals in Week 6, and we think Murray should be in Joe Montana Jersey line for a similar showing this weekend.
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